In many respects, the 2021 season resulted in a college football coaching carousel that was unlike any before, with 29 FBS head coaching jobs changing hands, including Lincoln Riley leaving Oklahoma for USC, Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame for LSU and Mario Cristobal leaving Oregon for Miami.
Few know the machinations of the carousel better than coaching agents. What do they really think about the 2021-22 coaching cycle? The Athletic asked five agents for their thoughts on the hirings, firings, long-term contracts and more, granting anonymity so they could speak candidly.
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What’s your biggest takeaway from this coaching carousel?
Agent 5: Coaches got paid. That was the biggest thing I got from the cycle. To see Mel Tucker do what he did. James Franklin. The amount of money in the total guaranteed contracts that were given out this year — Lincoln Riley, obviously, Brian Kelly — that’s something that we really haven’t seen in one cycle, happening for that many coaches.
Agent 3: We are now seeing Power 5 institutions in the SEC — and other places that are well-financed — asserting themselves and moving toward basically running a professionalized model when it comes to football programs. Like, “We’re willing to spend more than what other schools will ever be able to because we know what the future looks like in college athletics.”
We saw that with Brian Kelly. We saw that with Lincoln Riley. We saw that with Mario Cristobal and Miami.
These schools are able to spend $10 million on a coach, while most NFL coaches are not making anywhere near that money. And they’re putting themselves in that position to have to spend that type of money, knowing full well that in a couple of years, that entire model might flip and you might have to have a revenue share with your student-athletes. You obviously either have to be completely crazy to do it or at the other end of the spectrum fully understanding of, hey, this is going to be a professionalized business in a couple of years and $10 million to have the right coach is a good market rate to lock in right now. Because who knows what things are going to look like in a couple of years?
Agent 4: A lot of these times, the jobs are predetermined. These searches are kind of a farce. There are many times the gears are put in motion months before the coach gets fired. There’s a little bit of ethics that need to be brought back into the fold. Somebody’s got a job and they’re working — give them some respect and try to empower them. That bothers me somewhat.
That’s not necessarily new, but it was very evident in some of these cases last offseason. It’s not every case. But there’s a guy they want and they put on a charade of a search and bring people to interview, bring in a minority interview, but they have no intention of hiring those people.
What surprised you?
Agent 5: Brian Kelly to LSU. Not that it was the move from Notre Dame to LSU, but I just feel like Brian Kelly to LSU is not necessarily a great fit — and the fact that he left while they still had a chance to play in the Playoff. That was shocking to me.
Agent 1: I don’t know if (Cristobal) is necessarily the guy you should be afraid of. Like, what has he done that’s been so great? Everybody talks about how good of a recruiter he is. How come he didn’t have a quarterback outside (of inheriting) Justin Herbert? How come he gets out-coached by Kyle Whittingham two out of three games in the fall? You have the athletes. There’s going to be like three first-round picks from that team? How come you’re losing to Stanford and Utah twice? I wouldn’t be afraid in recruiting. I think it’s wide-open in that state.
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Agent 3: That the concept of loyalty no longer exists. If it ever existed. To think about folks like Brian Kelly or Lincoln Riley — a lot of people said they would never leave other than for, say the NFL, but they so easily jumped ship. … Maybe it’s a little bit disappointing or maybe it’s just a culmination of everything that everybody knew that loyalty means nothing and, in college sports anymore, that the days of somebody spending their entire career at one institution are over.
Agent 1: I thought Oklahoma would meet Lincoln Riley’s price tag. That surprised me. Sonny Dykes going across town (to TCU) surprised me. I always thought SMU could get you whatever you needed. Wouldn’t it be more desirable to kick ass (in the AAC)?
What was the best hire?
Agent 2: Mario Cristobal. As much as (Miami) needed someone who’s proven they can win, they needed somebody that (excites people). That fan base, that booster support — it was deader than Elvis. They needed somebody to go reinvigorate that. That collective stuff ain’t happening if Manny (Diaz is) still there. Mario’s the reason that thing is going.
Agent 3: USC. To be able to go poach Lincoln Riley, who is pretty much considered the top young coach in the country and has many, many, many years ahead of him to go and coach at an institution where he’s a great fit. Oklahoma’s a great school, but he’s the type of young guy that can really build something unique, especially in the NIL era with what USC has.
Agent 4: I think Marcus Freeman is going to be a really good one (for Notre Dame). I’ve heard nothing but phenomenal things about Marcus. …
I think Cristobal to Miami is a very good one. Lincoln Riley is a good one, but time will tell. That’s a move to be a national champion. The only way you’ll say Riley was a good one is if he wins a national championship. I think Brent Pry was a really good hire at Virginia Tech. He’s a great coach. He brings a mentality back to the Beamer mentality that’s been missing.
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Agent 5: USC hiring Lincoln Riley and being able to bring Caleb Williams. … They needed to do something, and they really did make a splash.
Who made the worst move?
Agent 3: I think that Miami made a great hire in Mario, but I’m not sure if Mario Cristobal made a great move in going from Oregon to Miami. I think that Oregon is substantially better positioned because of Phil Knight and Nike and their infrastructure to be successful over the long horizon of what college sports may look like over the next decade than Miami. He’s basically in a rebuilding situation at Miami, and at an institution that has resources but will never have the same resources or fan support that Oregon has.
Agent 5: Oregon letting Cristobal leave. If I were them, I would have done whatever I could to keep him. I don’t think they should have let him leave for Miami, which granted, is his home. But at the same time, Miami has not had the same success recently that Oregon has.
Agent 4: UConn (Jim Mora). New Mexico State was uninspiring with Jerry Kill. I think Washington was a reach with (Kalen) DeBoer. I’ve heard good things about him, but he hasn’t been doing it long and now he’s a Power 5 head coach? The Brian Kelly one is going to be interesting to watch. He’s a very, very smart guy. But that environment is a different pressure cooker than anything he’s dealt with before. Can he handle that heat?
Who was the most underrated hire?
Agent 1: Joe Moorhead was a great hire (by Akron). I don’t know if he can pull it off at a middling school that hasn’t done much, but it’s perfect. An experienced guy. I don’t know how long he’ll be there, but he took over something that is really damaged. Tom Arth was a white-collar guy at a blue-collar school. I like the Moorhead hire.
Agent 3: Jay Norvell. Colorado State getting someone to move within the league says a lot, and I think we saw the result of (AD) Doug Knuth getting fired at Nevada for letting it happen. He’s a great coach who was successful at a school that doesn’t have the same type of resources or commitment that Colorado State has. A lot of people viewed him as being an obvious candidate for Pac-12 jobs. And yet, there was a school within the league that was better resourced that was able to grab them. That’s going to hopefully pay dividends for them.
Agent 4: I like the Brent Pry one (at Virginia Tech). I also like Sonny Cumbie (at Louisiana Tech). I think he’s going to be a longtime successful head coach. He’s gonna be Mike Leach without the drama, and he gives a s— about defense.
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Agent 5: Billy Napier at Florida. I think it’s a great hire, especially knowing that he’s turned down other opportunities over the years. Florida has the financial ability to replicate what he saw at Alabama and what he did on a smaller scale at Louisiana, where he had tremendous success. He’s got everything he needs to do it his way. Because he didn’t come from a Power 5 school, I don’t think as many people are aware of the success he’s already had as a head coach.
What are your thoughts on long-term deals, like the ones to keep Mel Tucker (Michigan State) and James Franklin (Penn State) in place?
Agent 1: Who other than Penn State would give James Franklin a 10-year deal? So what if he leaves? You’ll get another one. You’re Penn State. You can get another good coach.
(With Tucker), if you want to give him that deal after he beats Ohio State, then I get that. You get it on a Saturday morning and then you get smoked? Not even competitive. I think most athletic directors just have no guts. If you’re Michigan’s guy and (Jim) Harbaugh’s flirting with this Vikings job, go take the job. I don’t need to redo your deal. I’m going to get somebody who wants to be here. I’m not saying that’s what they should have done, but if more guys took that approach, coaches would realize, “Oh s—, Michigan is a really good job.”
Agent 2: Mel’s got a great situation. I can go 8-4 every three years and not worry about getting fired? That’s the greatest f——- job in the world. It’s really becoming irresponsible. I get that people say agents are the reason for this, but the fact administrators would do this shows how foolish they are. They’re spending TV money they don’t even have.
Agent 3: For both Mel and James, they got a great deal. But did the market dictate that those contracts should have been given? I don’t know. Were there enough schools going after Mel Tucker and James Franklin that this was the value over replacement? A lot of people in East Lansing were happy, but a lot of people also said, “Well, did Mel do enough yet to deserve that type of contract?” Same thing in State College. …
The reality is, how many 10-year contracts were signed this offseason and how many coaches will actually make it through those 10 years without getting fired? It almost never works out. As an agent, I can tell you that the market is very quickly overpaying for what it can get in terms of value over replacement for a good coach.
Agent 4: It’s a fool’s errand because things change. Nothing stays the same. A decade is an eternity in the sports business. Yes, buyouts are different, but with a longer team, the guaranteed money is much larger. Why would you ever put that type of liability on your institution? That’s not a very economically sound way of doing business. The demand for a return on that investment is enormous. What are the billionaires going to do when Brian Kelly doesn’t win a national championship in the first three years or when Mel Tucker doesn’t sniff being in a national championship game? Will they be happy with eight wins?
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Agent 5: It was shocking to see guys get such huge guaranteed deals, but my prediction now is that we’ll just start to see more and more of them.
Agent 1: Some schools have to realize who they are. I don’t know if they’re trying to curry favor with alumni. Some ADs just like to say they’re the one who hired this guy.
What’s going on with Bryan Harsin and Auburn?
Agent 1: Nobody in the industry I knew thought that was a good fit, and it wasn’t. And then to string this guy along and kind of have like a symposium on his viability in the future, shouldn’t that have been done last year? What changed? He’s the same guy. He’s running the same stuff. You think he’s confident? Did they put more years on his contract? No. …
He’s going to go through hell again. One false move and he’s done. It’s not like he gained any power. So you make this guy sweat. Assuming you’re going to get rid of this guy, what is going to make this job appealing to somebody on the outside that’s an up-and-comer? Yeah it’s Auburn, but is everything going to be micromanaged? This level of oversight, and it’s not even led by the AD, it’s these external forces, I have to deal with this bulls—? I’d rather wait my turn (for another job).
Agent 2: Just because of where they are, every year you wonder if Auburn is going to fire their coach. Last year, if (Tank Bigsby) doesn’t step out of bounds and just falls down in the field of play and they run out the clock to beat Alabama, they’re probably extending him to the end of the millennium.
Agent 3. Everybody wants something. Everybody thinks they’re in charge. I feel bad for (Auburn AD) Allen Greene. He has a miserable job. Working at a Power 5 institution as an AD now is 99 percent donor management. He is babysitting a bunch of billionaire crybabies, and each one wants their hand in the cookie jar. You cannot build a long-term sustainable program unless you invest. He’s a good coach. He’s done OK. You have to give him some time. It’s because they saw LSU go hire Brian Kelly and all of the sudden they think they can get somebody better.
Agent 4: It’s an absolute mess. Auburn as an institution has long-term problems. They’ve been around for a long time and this is not changing anytime soon. I totally believe that coach is gone. I totally believe the AD is gonna be gone. … I feel bad for the people involved. It’s not Bryan’s fault, but it was a mistake. It’s taking money and not looking if this job is a fit for me. Bryan would be much better suited in the West. This is the part of the process where people in my position need to step up and not just chase money. Don’t send your client into a place that’s going to become a disaster. They need someone up top like a president who’s going to tighten that ship.
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Final thoughts on the state of the coaching carousel
Agent 1: A lot of these athletic directors try to build security for guys that don’t deserve it, that haven’t proven anything. They’re so quick to make that next big splash hire. They don’t even know who’s good or bad. These programs, they can come with a lot of s—. Not that you’re afraid to compete, but do you want to deal with some Auburn booster you’d rather punch in the face? I don’t. Most of my clients probably don’t. You have to be cautious about situations and do your homework.
Where agents f— up is they don’t provide any value to their coaches and they just want the money — “Take this (head coaching) job.” Do your homework on it. Do your homework on what kind of place it’s going to be. You want your client to be happy.
Agent 2: With the proliferation of air conditioning, everybody moves south. So 101 degrees isn’t that bad when you go inside and it’s 72. When Bud Wilkinson was at Oklahoma and Ara Parseghian was at Notre Dame, those guys aren’t leaving for USC and LSU. But now it’s harder to recruit at Oklahoma and Notre Dame than it’s ever been. Everybody’s on TV, everybody in your league is getting the same cut of TV money, and at Notre Dame, you have the academic stuff. It makes sense that Brian Kelly would want to try something different. He wasn’t making much less at Notre Dame than he is at LSU. Maybe they all want to live in warmer weather.
Agent 4: It felt like the search firms were less involved. They weren’t hired to do the whole thing. The schools were taking a lot of the responsibility themselves. They retain the firms to do background checks, but it felt like the interview process was handled by the school. In the past, you’d have to talk to the search firm people. There was a lot more direct engagement with the schools. I liked that. It’s astonishing, the lack of success these search firm hires have had. Why do you keep going back to the well if it’s not working? Maybe this is a break from that. They seemingly weren’t as involved as they had been in the past.
Agent 3: It seems like ADs or, more specifically, donors who are actually paying for these coaches are looking at it and saying there are literally only a handful of really successful, competent coaches, and if you don’t have one of them, you have no chance at being successful. My personal opinion is that’s wrong.
Because there is so much else that goes into having a successful football program in 2022, especially now with NIL. There are a lot of really good young coaches who don’t need 10-year, $10-million contracts to come to an institution but can be competitive if they’re surrounded with a good staff, good infrastructure, good resources and good administrative leadership. I think what’s going to be interesting is when a program actually figures that out — I would rather go and pay my coach $4 million a year and put the rest of that toward NIL or something to enhance the whole package.
Agent 1: People perceive this loyalty (to schools). Why would guys be loyal to you? Athletic directors aren’t loyal. Athletic directors don’t even call each other up anymore as a courtesy that I’m going to poach your guy. I’ve heard that a lot. These administrators go meet each other once every three months, all the common courtesy is lost. They all get together in Las Vegas (at the National Football Foundation), and two weeks later, they’re stealing each other’s clients. There’s no loyalty. For anyone to talk loyalty about Mario (to Oregon) or people like that, there’s no such thing. The only thing people care about is cash. That’s it. Tradition and other stuff, it’s bulls—.
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Agent 5: There is truly no one job that is just better than every other. Some of these schools still think they are the end destination for a coach, or a fan base feels like it’s the best place in the world for a multitude of reasons. But coaches showed this cycle they’re willing to leave what is considered the upper echelon of college football for other jobs in the top echelon.
Editor’s note: The Athletic went inside the 2021-22 college football coaching carousel with a series of stories on one of the wildest cycles ever. This concludes our series … for now!
(Top illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: John Korduner and Rich Schultz / Getty Images)